RE: FW: Forced reentry of Cosmos 2495

From: Igor Lissov via Seesat-l <>
Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 14:23:45 +0400

Thank you for good analysis. 

> It is necessary to review the previous eight Kobal't-M launches to learn
as much as possible about the debris jettisoned prior to the de-orbit burn.
Of particular interest is the typical time of jettison relative the de-orbit
burn, the delta-V of separation, and the ballistic coefficient. The number
of pieces of debris catalogued has ranged between zero and three. The zeros
may have been the result of decay before cataloguing could occur.

For Kosmos 2445 (33439U) the landing time was estimated 23 Feb 2009 16:15
UTC. The estimate should be reliable as the descent and landing was observed
by local citizens with some images taken.

Two debris elements (33969 and 33970) seem to separate several hours before
the descent. Jonathan calculated the separation time to be 13:30 UTC. I
found closest distance between the two at 08:25 UTC. Minimal distance
between 33439 and either of the fragments cannot be calculated reliably. 

For Kosmos 2427 (31595U) the landing time was estimated 22 Aug 2007 21:00
UTC. Meanwhile multiple Russian language reports on descent available at

with observation times at 20:43-20:47 DMV (17:43-17:47 UTC) which matches
the ground track of Kosmos 2427.

Attempts to obtain reasonable separation times between 31595 and debris
objects 32048 and 32049 were not successful. All TCAs are dated August 23
between 02:45 and 05:02 UTC.

Igor Lissov

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Received on Wed Sep 10 2014 - 05:25:19 UTC

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