ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v9

From: Ted Molczan (
Date: Sat Oct 22 2011 - 12:17:31 UTC

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    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer.
    The consensus date of decay remains Oct 23 UTC.
    Oddly, the latest TLE on Space Track remains that of epoch 11294.0621390, nearly 35 hours ago, yet a new TIP message has
    appeared in the interim.
    1. Updated since my previous report:
    USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 22 at 03:30 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 01:31 UTC, +/- 14 h:
    Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 21 at 14:40 UTC, is 23 October, 05:33 UTC +/- 6 h:
    2. Unchanged since my previous report:
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11294.0621390 TLE, is Oct 23 near 05:00 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 10
    h, based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11293.8168200 TLE, is Oct 23 at 13:24 UTC +/- 16 h:
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    Ted Molczan
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