Re: Double flash from Iridium 65 (solar array flare)

From: Willie Koorts (
Date: Tue Jun 18 2002 - 08:18:07 EDT

On Sat, 15 Jun 2002, Matson, Robert wrote:

> As has been suggested by Bjoern and others on the list, you saw
> a solar array flare from Iridium 65.  It was predicted to be
> magnitude -3 by IRIDFLAR, 25 seconds after your regular flare
> from the right MMA.  Solar array flare prediction was added (with
> a fair degree of programming effort!) in IRIDFLAR version 2.2
> about a year ago.  Surprisingly, few people seem to have made
> attempts to observe them, probably because most people use
> Heavens-Above for flare prediction.

Thanks Bjorn, Rob and others for the nice explanation for what we saw.  I
must admit, I am one of the lazy ones relying on heavens-above for Iridium
flare predictions, particularly when dealing with the public since I know
that the non-performer-Iridiums are filtered out beforehand for me.

I thus have not really used IRIDFLARE for predictions, only for some
after-the-event analysis.  From my recent experience, I'm surely going to
change my plan of attack now.  Going after solar array flares are well
worth the effort from what I saw.

Does IRIDFLAR give an indication of the "certainty" of a particular
prediction or do one need to remember which are the non-performer

Thanks again

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