On such a day, my thoughts are very much with the families, friends and
colleagues of the brave crew of Columbia.
Though it is hard to focus on other things, I have just updated my Decay
Watch page. A summary follows, with the usual encouragement to check the
page for my predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #18083 = 87- 48 A = Cosmos 1849
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Jan 31 08:59 Feb 2 09:06 +-1d 60.6 S 148.5 W
SatEvo Feb 1 19:40 Feb 3 17:37 +-18h
Latest elsets:
Cosmos 1849 4884 x 81 km
1 18083U 87048A 03032.63835472 .72924352 -10646-4 12942-2 0 103
2 18083 62.0503 230.3706 2710290 210.9345 129.9774 10.40990622115249
Cosmos 1849 4717 x 89 km
1 18083U 87048A 03032.73392558 .01218497 91697-5 33492-4 0 116
2 18083 62.0317 230.1793 2634867 210.5375 131.0647 10.55083494115250
Note: For the first time in several days, the published elsets for
this are looking reasonable, though the latest one has a too-low
drag. My predicted elsets (on my Decay Watch page) are very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27562 = 02- 52 B = MEPSI
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Feb 1 00:54 Jan 31 23:46 +-1h 7.9 N 24.4 E
SatEvo Jan 31 19:35 Jan 31 23:52 +-2h 31.8 S 53.4 E
Final elset:
MEPSI 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 d 0.1 192 x 185 km
1 27562U 02052B 03031.62177686 .10433225 12093-4 19148-2 0 1784
2 27562 51.6334 338.2157 0005412 143.6758 37.7617 16.31497929 9428
Note: No further elsets appeared, so my final pre-decay estimate
stands. This has it decaying southbound over the Indian Ocean on the
second of these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
MEPSI 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 d 0.1 161 x 157 km
1 27562U 02052B 03031.89639435 .39292235 12523+1 20149-2 0 91789
2 27562 51.6307 336.6720 0003279 144.8277 215.1940 16.42704524 9463
MEPSI 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 d 0.1 140 x 137 km
1 27562U 02052B 03031.95710932 1.15144271 13978+2 12828-2 0 91780
2 27562 51.6290 336.3259 0002044 145.0860 214.9274 16.50228849 9476
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27614 = 02- 59 B = Cosmos 2393 r1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Feb 1 10:08 Feb 3 09:48 +-1d 62.0 S 46.1 E
SatEvo Feb 1 19:45 Feb 3 13:39 +-14h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 2393 r1 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 8 253 x 173 km
1 27614U 02059B 03032.64622601 .02736797 84948-5 75029-3 0 1055
2 27614 62.7823 77.6097 0060498 110.7379 250.1273 16.22381744 6207
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Feb 01 2003 - 15:04:45 EST