A summary of the latest update to my Decay Watch page.
Have a Happy New Year :-)
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Object: #13091 = 64- 49 F = Cosmos 41 deb
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Dec 30 20:36 Dec 31 08:54 +-8h 38.2 N 19.4 E
SatEvo Dec 31 09:50 Dec 31 03:38 +-2h 28.6 N 91.6 E
Latest elsets:
Cosmos 41 deb F 3102 x 135 km
1 13091U 64049F 02364.77584325 .99999999 23218-4 36045-1 0 6777
2 13091 64.4447 231.1174 1855369 33.4151 337.8250 12.14094381 70264
Cosmos 41 deb F 1719 x 93 km
1 13091U 64049F 02365.00802116 .99999999 13074-3 43591-2 0 6790
2 13091 64.3428 230.6523 1116285 31.0644 335.2112 13.96473630 70282
Cosmos 41 deb F 1873 x 142 km
1 13091U 64049F 02365.02832669 .99999999 20932-4 62684-1 0 6782
2 13091 64.3986 230.7669 1172389 31.0190 75.9410 13.67851707 70299
Note: The latest elsets are inconsistent with respect to perigee height.
I show this decaying northbound over the Himalayas on the following
SatEvo-predicted rev:
Cosmos 41 deb F 877 x 74 km
1 13091U 64049F 02365.14622664 9.14450224 50000+2 37267-2 0 96747
2 13091 64.2890 230.3242 0586046 31.5206 331.8624 15.30129095 70310
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Object: #15182 = 84- 85 A = Molniya 1-61
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Dec 31 02:49 Dec 31 08:59 +-4h 16.7 S 168.2 E
SatEvo Dec 31 09:55 Dec 31 10:20 +-20m 45.5 S 123.8 E
Latest elsets:
Molniya 1-61 777 x 76 km
1 15182U 84085A 02365.31252934 .99999999 83662-5 85455-3 0 2419
2 15182 62.4992 50.6768 0514722 276.1936 78.2155 15.46656368 89902
Molniya 1-61 592 x 66 km
1 15182U 84085A 02365.37685320 .99999999 86922-5 46305-3 0 2428
2 15182 62.5214 50.4679 0392444 276.4935 80.0322 15.80472666 89919
Note: I have this decaying following perigee on the orbit given by the
latest elset, above. This places it to the S of Australia on a track
that crosses South Australia and Queensland between 10:24 and 10:29 UTC.
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Object: #27631 = 02- 61 B = ? See Note below.
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Dec 30 17:35 Dec 30 08:35 +-30m 14.9 S 92.2 E
SatEvo Not predicted
Note: Although SCC identify this as the Shenzhou 4 LM4 rocket, if this
object existed at all it was probably a debris object from the launch.
At the time the notice was issued, the rocket was being tracked as
the A object from the launch and Shenzhou 4 itself was being tracked
as the C object. The designations were corrected a few hours later
so that Shenzhou 4 became the A object and the (real) rocket became
the B object. My current estimate for the decay of the latter is
2003 January 10.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Dec 31 2002 - 06:53:50 EST