Decay watch: 2002 December 31

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Dec 31 2002 - 06:44:39 EST

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    A summary of the latest update to my Decay Watch page.
    
    Have a Happy New Year :-)
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #13091 = 64- 49 F = Cosmos 41 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec 30 20:36     Dec 31 08:54 +-8h        38.2 N    19.4 E
    SatEvo     Dec 31 09:50     Dec 31 03:38 +-2h        28.6 N    91.6 E
    
    Latest elsets:
    Cosmos 41 deb F                                  3102 x 135 km
    1 13091U 64049F   02364.77584325  .99999999  23218-4  36045-1 0  6777
    2 13091  64.4447 231.1174 1855369  33.4151 337.8250 12.14094381 70264
    Cosmos 41 deb F                                  1719 x 93 km
    1 13091U 64049F   02365.00802116  .99999999  13074-3  43591-2 0  6790
    2 13091  64.3428 230.6523 1116285  31.0644 335.2112 13.96473630 70282
    Cosmos 41 deb F                                  1873 x 142 km
    1 13091U 64049F   02365.02832669  .99999999  20932-4  62684-1 0  6782
    2 13091  64.3986 230.7669 1172389  31.0190  75.9410 13.67851707 70299
    
    Note: The latest elsets are inconsistent with respect to perigee height.
    I show this decaying northbound over the Himalayas on the following
    SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Cosmos 41 deb F                                  877 x 74 km
    1 13091U 64049F   02365.14622664 9.14450224  50000+2  37267-2 0 96747
    2 13091  64.2890 230.3242 0586046  31.5206 331.8624 15.30129095 70310
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15182 = 84- 85 A = Molniya 1-61
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec 31 02:49     Dec 31 08:59 +-4h        16.7 S   168.2 E
    SatEvo     Dec 31 09:55     Dec 31 10:20 +-20m       45.5 S   123.8 E
    
    Latest elsets:
    Molniya 1-61                                     777 x 76 km
    1 15182U 84085A   02365.31252934  .99999999  83662-5  85455-3 0  2419
    2 15182  62.4992  50.6768 0514722 276.1936  78.2155 15.46656368 89902
    Molniya 1-61                                     592 x 66 km
    1 15182U 84085A   02365.37685320  .99999999  86922-5  46305-3 0  2428
    2 15182  62.5214  50.4679 0392444 276.4935  80.0322 15.80472666 89919
    
    Note: I have this decaying following perigee on the orbit given by the
    latest elset, above. This places it to the S of Australia on a track
    that crosses South Australia and Queensland between 10:24 and 10:29 UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27631 = 02- 61 B = ? See Note below.
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec 30 17:35     Dec 30 08:35 +-30m       14.9 S    92.2 E
    SatEvo     Not predicted
    
    Note: Although SCC identify this as the Shenzhou 4 LM4 rocket, if this
    object existed at all it was probably a debris object from the launch.
    At the time the notice was issued, the rocket was being tracked as
    the A object from the launch and Shenzhou 4 itself was being tracked
    as the C object. The designations were corrected a few hours later
    so that Shenzhou 4 became the A object and the (real) rocket became
    the B object. My current estimate for the decay of the latter is
    2003 January 10.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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